Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 28.521858 30.486345 32.605593 35.077610 37.902743 41.056512 44.880670
2025-10-26 26.326113 29.032228 32.125553 35.979542 40.737306 46.541282 54.367403
2025-11-02 24.652194 27.714791 31.345679 36.070330 42.224292 50.240892 62.009203
2025-11-09 22.884933 26.051466 29.896815 35.050222 42.020721 51.550575 66.501838
2025-11-16 21.427555 24.623803 28.577028 33.998194 41.555812 52.310837 70.190318
2025-11-23 20.821726 24.196155 28.462076 34.478242 43.188606 56.245564 79.743160
2025-11-30 20.097693 23.556961 28.005367 34.420286 43.999512 59.006367 88.010261
2025-12-07 19.344730 22.829076 27.370875 34.039448 44.254792 60.870939 95.110006
2025-12-14 18.292838 21.654367 26.063220 32.590473 42.709231 59.466083 95.108471
2025-12-21 17.846127 21.261394 25.798886 32.635143 43.506895 62.231345 105.044989
2025-12-28 17.562098 21.068996 25.794342 33.053017 44.934876 66.359989 119.961771
2026-01-04 16.922964 20.365266 25.032947 32.266323 44.265346 66.376063 124.227854
2026-01-11 16.499445 20.013006 24.854996 32.531494 45.721259 71.505701 148.379855
2026-01-18 16.234283 19.872123 24.980934 33.303289 48.233046 79.733538 193.395167
2026-01-25 15.812523 19.481901 24.705165 33.384157 49.466311 85.509628 240.262064
2026-02-01 15.179646 18.759796 23.888990 32.493419 48.692998 86.130537 263.472160
2026-02-08 14.587333 18.071889 23.089814 31.572267 47.749440 86.097135 284.369290
2026-02-15 14.365952 17.908984 23.078718 31.992949 49.582009 94.277031 398.728655
2026-02-22 14.050290 17.593480 22.812438 31.942191 50.417641 99.974783 540.364080
2026-03-01 13.692423 17.201337 22.405840 31.608440 50.590811 103.715715 714.068905
2026-03-08 13.146903 16.514414 21.508148 30.335230 48.532505 99.393946 678.673614
2026-03-15 12.919129 16.292681 21.337943 30.374563 49.454592 105.800307 1096.606708
2026-03-22 12.774058 16.188161 21.347675 30.742253 51.191085 116.188612 3263.685185